Emerging Equity Trading Patterns in 2026

Property rates have come under pressure after a period of strong growth, with current information from the Dubai Land Department showing a drop in home loan deals and cash sales. We think the threat of a lasting migrant outflow and a severe recession in the genuine estate sector is low.

As a lasting US-Iran deal takes shape, the fallout from the dispute has actually tightened up local monetary conditions, exposing vulnerabilities through capital outflows, broader bond spreads, and weaker investor belief. A lot of GCC sovereigns bring fairly little debt and funding risks are for that reason limited in the UAE, the reserve bank's liquidity management has actually reduced immediate concerns.

That stated, Bahrain has had the ability to depend on support from neighbours, consisting of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and it successfully raised $1bn from an oversubscribed sovereign bond sale this month, marking the first offering from the region considering that the war began. High-frequency fiscal information highlight the strain on regional public financial resources from the dispute.

ANSR July GCC PRs 50DR+

2026 Middle Eastern Financial Outlook

In Saudi Arabia, the deficit spending more than doubled to SAR125.7 bn, or about 9% of GDP in Q1, driven by a decrease in oil earnings and a rise in costs, particularly on subsidies, showing contingency expenses connected to the local environment and an acceleration of Vision 2030 spending. In Qatar, the crisis brought oil and gas profits to a stop, swelling the deficit spending to the biggest considering that 2017.

GCC inflation dynamics stay unequal, with food rates the main source of upward pressure and inflation in this classification strengthening in Kuwait, Oman and Qatar. By contrast, food inflation remains fairly suppressed in Saudi Arabia, likely reflecting the mitigating effect of its bigger domestic food production base and higher supply-chain durability.

We continue to see price pressures as largely temporal instead of a sign of a sustained inflationary cycle. Accordingly, we expect average inflation to ease to 2.1% y/y in 2027 as short-lived supply-side pressures dissipate. With near-term inflation elevated and transit through the Strait likely set to resume slowly, we expect the United States Federal Reserve to keep interest rates on hold till December, and local rate policies to do the same.

We expect Iran's GDP to shrink by 10.8% this year (we forecast a 9.4% contraction three months ago). Oil production and exports, which provide essential revenue and FX inflows, have been curtailed by the US naval blockade, while non-oil activity has been seriously struck. In Iraq, oil exports have actually collapsed to a trickle and we're anticipating GDP to agreement by around 22% this year, with a sharp 33% rebound in 2027 as oil exports normalise.

By contrast, Syria continues to reintegrate into the worldwide economy after more than a decade of civil war. We expect GDP growth to average 9.6% over 2026-2027, supported by renewed financial investment, especially in banking and energy, financial reforms, and the steady reopening of local trade links.

Key Foreign Capital Prospects for the GCC Market

The World Bank has actually slashed its 2026 growth forecast for Middle East economies, stating total GDP development in the region is anticipated to slow from an approximated 3.6% in January to 1.8% for 2026. The closure of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, and destruction of energy and public infrastructure, had disrupted markets, increased monetary volatility, and compromised the 2026 growth outlook, the World Bank Group said in its Economic Update for the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The April 2026 World Bank's Macro Hardship Outlook anticipates that the area's aggregate (excluding the Iran) GDP growth will decrease to 1.8 percent in 2026, below 4.0 percent estimated for 2025. The 2026 projection has been reduced by 2.4 percentage points given that the January projections, showing the negative results of the continuous dispute.

Saudi Arabia: Forecast was downgraded by 1.2 percentage points since January. Growth is now expected to slow from 4.3% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026, keeping in mind that Saudi Arabia's outlook stays the greatest among Gulf economies. United Arab Emirates: Development projection for the UAE has actually fallen by 2.7 percentage points since January.

Qatar: Especially, growth projection for the Qatari economy has actually seen a sharp decline of 11.0 portion points since January. The economy is now anticipated to tape a contraction of 5.7%, below an approximated development of 5.3%, due to extreme blockage to melted gas materials. Qatar is a key gamer in the global energy market, with a global market share of melted natural gas (LNG) products ranging in between 20% and 21%.

Kuwait relies completely (100%) on the Strait of Hormuz to export its petroleum and derivatives. Closing the strait would suggest a complete shutdown of the country's monetary lifeline, instantly halting earnings inflows to the state budget plan. Bahrain: Growth projection for Bahrain's economy has declined by 1.8 percentage points since January.